drirshad
06-05 05:06 AM
Things seems to be so messy that Ron has very cleverly avoided any speculation about the coming up visa bulletin.
http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5185
Ron Gotcher cannot predict the July 2008 visa bulletin, following is what he says.
Historically, about 40% of all immigrant visas/adjustment approvals take place in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year (July - September). The law prohibits the issuance of more than 27% of the quota in any of the first three quarters. All visas that are unused (ordered but not issued) must be returned for use in the fourth quarter. This is why we see most visas being issued in the July - September interval.
This year, there is anecdotal evidence that the government may have violated the law and issued more visas in the first three quarters than permitted by statute. No one really knows if this is true or just the result of inartful language used by government officials. No one has released any absolute numbers as to actual issuances.
If the government did violate the law, then all bets are off and there is no way to anticipate what might be in the works.
If they did not violate the law, however, we can infer certain things from what we have seen thus far. We know that the CIS has enough AOS applications in the existing inventory (backlog) to fill the annual quota four times over. If they were processing with any degree of efficiency, cutoff dates would be backlogged worse that what they were at the start of the fiscal year last October. They aren't.
Because the CIS isn't processing cases at a rate sufficient to exhaust the annual quota, the State Department has had to move cutoff dates forward in order to attract more applicants to file overseas with consulates. This allows the State Department to step up and process immigrant visa applications and help exhaust the quota.
We know that CIS processing has been deficient this year because we have seen forward cutoff date movement. If the CIS were processing large numbers of cases, not only would forward cutoff date movement be wholly unnecessary, it would be grossly irresponsible.
Given the forward movement earlier in the year, I certainly expected to see substantial movement in June. That did not happen. Why it didn't happen is unknown. It could be that the CIS, wishing to avoid a repeat of last year, dropped everything an adjudicated a massive number of cases. I doubt that happened because we haven't seen any evidence of it. Had they approved a huge number of cases in a short period of time, it would have been all over the Internet.
It could also be that, once again, the CIS has solemnly promised the State Department that they really will adjudicate a huge number of cases this time and all those other years where they made the same promise and then failed to follow through don't really count because this time they really mean it.
Whatever the reason for the lack of movement in June, July will tell us what is going to happen for the balance of the fiscal year. If there is no substantial movement in July, then we are unlikely to see much movement in August or September. If there is substantial movement in July, however, we can probably expect to see a retrogression in September.
The July visa bulletin should be out around Monday, July 14th. Let's see what happens.
http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5185
Ron Gotcher cannot predict the July 2008 visa bulletin, following is what he says.
Historically, about 40% of all immigrant visas/adjustment approvals take place in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year (July - September). The law prohibits the issuance of more than 27% of the quota in any of the first three quarters. All visas that are unused (ordered but not issued) must be returned for use in the fourth quarter. This is why we see most visas being issued in the July - September interval.
This year, there is anecdotal evidence that the government may have violated the law and issued more visas in the first three quarters than permitted by statute. No one really knows if this is true or just the result of inartful language used by government officials. No one has released any absolute numbers as to actual issuances.
If the government did violate the law, then all bets are off and there is no way to anticipate what might be in the works.
If they did not violate the law, however, we can infer certain things from what we have seen thus far. We know that the CIS has enough AOS applications in the existing inventory (backlog) to fill the annual quota four times over. If they were processing with any degree of efficiency, cutoff dates would be backlogged worse that what they were at the start of the fiscal year last October. They aren't.
Because the CIS isn't processing cases at a rate sufficient to exhaust the annual quota, the State Department has had to move cutoff dates forward in order to attract more applicants to file overseas with consulates. This allows the State Department to step up and process immigrant visa applications and help exhaust the quota.
We know that CIS processing has been deficient this year because we have seen forward cutoff date movement. If the CIS were processing large numbers of cases, not only would forward cutoff date movement be wholly unnecessary, it would be grossly irresponsible.
Given the forward movement earlier in the year, I certainly expected to see substantial movement in June. That did not happen. Why it didn't happen is unknown. It could be that the CIS, wishing to avoid a repeat of last year, dropped everything an adjudicated a massive number of cases. I doubt that happened because we haven't seen any evidence of it. Had they approved a huge number of cases in a short period of time, it would have been all over the Internet.
It could also be that, once again, the CIS has solemnly promised the State Department that they really will adjudicate a huge number of cases this time and all those other years where they made the same promise and then failed to follow through don't really count because this time they really mean it.
Whatever the reason for the lack of movement in June, July will tell us what is going to happen for the balance of the fiscal year. If there is no substantial movement in July, then we are unlikely to see much movement in August or September. If there is substantial movement in July, however, we can probably expect to see a retrogression in September.
The July visa bulletin should be out around Monday, July 14th. Let's see what happens.
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dell123
07-07 07:22 PM
i am just putting an idea, lets plan some hunger strike (one day fast) under american flag for one day! to get justice and get mass media attention..
Just an idea.....
Just an idea.....
indian
12-20 06:14 PM
Hi,
Great post. Question: does anyone know where -- preferably online -- can I get hold of the text of immigration law sections referred?
I am not doubting the veracity of the post. But I think it would help if I -- and also others -- can actually read the relevant sections, and possibly the entire chapter, of the law text to really understand for ourselves what it says.
I think doing this would also help us have a much more informed and to the point debate.
Indian.
Great post. Question: does anyone know where -- preferably online -- can I get hold of the text of immigration law sections referred?
I am not doubting the veracity of the post. But I think it would help if I -- and also others -- can actually read the relevant sections, and possibly the entire chapter, of the law text to really understand for ourselves what it says.
I think doing this would also help us have a much more informed and to the point debate.
Indian.
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JunRN
07-16 11:29 PM
Who told you that you will get EAD/AP in three months. Nothing will prevent USCIS to develop backlogs in EAD/AP too now. "Oh there were so many filed in June/July so that we can't process them that fast anymore...":cool:
Atleast we can get Interim EAD after 90 days, can't we?
Atleast we can get Interim EAD after 90 days, can't we?
more...
smisachu
05-15 12:18 PM
Yes. Everyone please contact your state chapters. IV is running a massive effort and we need all the help we can.
Members from NY/NJ/CT, please join the yahoo group. Murli and others are leading a strong campain. We need more support.
Always check with your state chapters.
State chapter leaders are more aware of our work than what we post on the forum for public.
There is lot of activity going on at this time. Everyone must join their state chapters to actively participate in IV effort.
There maybe some more news today. Hopefully... Stay tuned.
Members from NY/NJ/CT, please join the yahoo group. Murli and others are leading a strong campain. We need more support.
Always check with your state chapters.
State chapter leaders are more aware of our work than what we post on the forum for public.
There is lot of activity going on at this time. Everyone must join their state chapters to actively participate in IV effort.
There maybe some more news today. Hopefully... Stay tuned.
krishjack
07-10 08:27 AM
As one of the contents in our rally in DC and SAN JOSE we can mention something like
CNN/LOU DOBBS LISTEN TO US - DON'T SPREAD FALSE NEWS
CNN/LOU DOBBS LISTEN TO US - DON'T SPREAD FALSE NEWS
more...
boreal
12-12 01:11 PM
You wont be disappointed.
This country doesn't care about legal immigrants, all they care is about illegals and big businesses..Does anyone know how to go to Canada ? Please tell me ..please please...Or any other country other than India..doesnt matter even if it is Iraq..please tell me, I am tired of waiting for visa bulletins and putting my life on hold..please...
:-):-) Hehehehe folks..please continue from here, cant give more than this for now!!
This country doesn't care about legal immigrants, all they care is about illegals and big businesses..Does anyone know how to go to Canada ? Please tell me ..please please...Or any other country other than India..doesnt matter even if it is Iraq..please tell me, I am tired of waiting for visa bulletins and putting my life on hold..please...
:-):-) Hehehehe folks..please continue from here, cant give more than this for now!!
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chakalov
08-22 11:31 AM
Wow! Amazing .... In other words if you want to get GC through employment you better apply for it at birth :-)
08/22/2007: October 2007 EB Visa Bulletin Prediction of AILA
Based on the discussion with Charlie Oppenheim, Chief of Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting, DOS, the AILA has just released the following predictions:
EB-1 (All Countries): Closely match to September 2007 VB
EB-2 (All Countries): Closely match to September 2007 VB
EB-3 (All Countries): Similar to January 2007 VB
EB-3EW (All Countries): 10/01/2001
EB-4: N/A
EB-5: C
08/22/2007: October 2007 EB Visa Bulletin Prediction of AILA
Based on the discussion with Charlie Oppenheim, Chief of Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting, DOS, the AILA has just released the following predictions:
EB-1 (All Countries): Closely match to September 2007 VB
EB-2 (All Countries): Closely match to September 2007 VB
EB-3 (All Countries): Similar to January 2007 VB
EB-3EW (All Countries): 10/01/2001
EB-4: N/A
EB-5: C
more...
TwinkleM
02-17 10:13 PM
@ Saggi13, When did u file your I-140 & when was it approved? Does your situation mean that they have started processing your case?
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anura
04-29 02:53 PM
Why are we rambling on and on about this? There is absolutely no connection between India buying fighter jets and immigration. That was what the OP wanted to know. If the immigration processes will get affected because India excluded Boeing and Lockheed. There seems to be no connection between the two issues. Period.
more...
gcnirvana
07-06 04:04 PM
Also let all your friends/family know about tonight's interview. This will encourage them to visit IV and ultimately join and contribute :)
BTW, Great Job IV and Good Luck Doc!!
New members please fill in your contact information. Please help IV and help yourself. Spread the word of IV among your friends
BTW, Great Job IV and Good Luck Doc!!
New members please fill in your contact information. Please help IV and help yourself. Spread the word of IV among your friends
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whattodo
07-27 02:14 PM
Talked to an io at neb sc.within 5 sec of me starting to talk the ffice interuppted and she apologosed for doing that and said because of huge vol of appli there is a delay in the receipt notice.i SAID I AM july 2 nd filer and she said it might be in the first week of aug..(i had said the same thing in my earlier post too after i spoke toa diff officer)..She asked to keep checking the check clearnace.
Hope this helps
Thanks
If no one (or practically no one) from July 2nd has got their receipt notice, then whats the point of calling them everyday. Calling them will NOT get your receipts sooner. These kind of behaviors lead to bad customer service. Misuse it and then dont complain if USCIS disallows this service where we can call and talk to someone. Just get your act together and act maturely.
Hope this helps
Thanks
If no one (or practically no one) from July 2nd has got their receipt notice, then whats the point of calling them everyday. Calling them will NOT get your receipts sooner. These kind of behaviors lead to bad customer service. Misuse it and then dont complain if USCIS disallows this service where we can call and talk to someone. Just get your act together and act maturely.
more...
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diqingshen
07-31 12:38 PM
The guy answered phone said NSC is supposed to be compliant by August 1st, but he doesnt see it happening.
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485InDreams
09-19 03:19 PM
I believe, This will create some pressure on Strive Act.....
more...
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sgkgops
07-07 02:29 PM
Wow...good publicity....
>>http://video.msn.com/v/us/fv/msnbc/f...e-91f2915adc79
Is it right episode? I didn't see anything relate to july bulletin. Can you sent the right padcast?
>>http://video.msn.com/v/us/fv/msnbc/f...e-91f2915adc79
Is it right episode? I didn't see anything relate to july bulletin. Can you sent the right padcast?
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sreeni.k
01-13 10:52 AM
I tried to book tickets on makemytrip for luftansa yesterday; After going through all passport details etc- for over 2 hours checking etc the agent coolly told me that transit visa is required for advance parole holders. If you carefully see the regulations they mention "2 Years" permit not "1 year" validity of Advance parole. I also heard stories of multiple people blocked from boarding luftansa on advance parole. So i switched and booked on emirates instead. Apparently this rule is either enforced or not depends on the discretion of luftansa personel. So be carefull if you are on advance parole- Looks like germans also trying to get on the Visa Fee pie.
No transit visa required. I got an identical response when I checked with the german consulate in november. Nevertheless, I did not take transit visa, and with visa stamping expired in March 2010, I travelled with AP on Lufthansa from IAD to BLR in December, and returned in Jan 2011, and nobody even mentioned the word "transit" anywhere along the route. Lufthansa staff is very knowledgeable about AP, both in Wash.Dulles and BLR. In fact, In BLR I saw that even Air France also does not require transit visa for Paris and allowed people with AP to board without transit visa. So folks, dont waste time and money on transit visa. Nothing is going to happen , unless you miss your connecting flight in Frankfurt, in which case you will not get to stay in a hotel and would have to spend the transit time in the airport.
No transit visa required. I got an identical response when I checked with the german consulate in november. Nevertheless, I did not take transit visa, and with visa stamping expired in March 2010, I travelled with AP on Lufthansa from IAD to BLR in December, and returned in Jan 2011, and nobody even mentioned the word "transit" anywhere along the route. Lufthansa staff is very knowledgeable about AP, both in Wash.Dulles and BLR. In fact, In BLR I saw that even Air France also does not require transit visa for Paris and allowed people with AP to board without transit visa. So folks, dont waste time and money on transit visa. Nothing is going to happen , unless you miss your connecting flight in Frankfurt, in which case you will not get to stay in a hotel and would have to spend the transit time in the airport.
more...
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nonimmi
05-22 03:23 PM
1. Goto queens NY and join a fish shop. Most of them dont want to be legal though as they have to pay tax!!
2. Go climb Statue of Liberty wearing a T-shirt "Gimme Z"
2. Go climb Statue of Liberty wearing a T-shirt "Gimme Z"
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IneedAllGreen
06-27 05:18 PM
Yes my in-laws are fine and they were not disappointed seeing me in person. But I am gigling by looking at this thread is growing and at page 3 someone put a shame on this thread. As for me sometime its fun and Ok to share minor detail or personal detail to give confidence to someone doing same thing which we went thru(like I have beein using photos taken at Kinkos and Sears). Nevertheless since date is coming closer to file our 485 it makes me happy to see several smiley face and helping hands in IV forums. Glad to be helping others and ignore rants of others.
I am just here to share my thoughts and knowledge nothing personal to anyone. So to everyone Dont worry:( ! Be happy :) .
Thanks :D (This extra smile for all IV members)
I am sure SEARS pictures are great.
Hope your in-laws are not disappointed when they saw you in person :) :).... No ... I am just kidding .......No offense meant :):).... I am sure they like you and that is why you are married happily now :) Just wanted to bring a lighter moment tho this stingy thread.
I am just here to share my thoughts and knowledge nothing personal to anyone. So to everyone Dont worry:( ! Be happy :) .
Thanks :D (This extra smile for all IV members)
I am sure SEARS pictures are great.
Hope your in-laws are not disappointed when they saw you in person :) :).... No ... I am just kidding .......No offense meant :):).... I am sure they like you and that is why you are married happily now :) Just wanted to bring a lighter moment tho this stingy thread.
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gemini23
07-02 04:15 PM
medicals+vaccines(for me and my spouse) = $750
fedex = $50
gas = $30
passport fotos = $50
photocopying = $20
birthcertificate from india+courier = $30
uscis fees + lawyer fees (paid by employer)
2 days off (for medical visits)
8 hours waiting at doctors office for medicals
+ priceless feeling guilty of troubling old age parents to get birth certificates done
fedex = $50
gas = $30
passport fotos = $50
photocopying = $20
birthcertificate from india+courier = $30
uscis fees + lawyer fees (paid by employer)
2 days off (for medical visits)
8 hours waiting at doctors office for medicals
+ priceless feeling guilty of troubling old age parents to get birth certificates done
gc_lover
06-27 10:37 AM
There is a very good chance that something will happen soon if we rush. if you are smart enough to think that filing on july 1st will guarantee your acceptance, then you are wrong buddy. As per the other threads and discussions from lawers , immigration officers, and info pass applicants that we have seen so far, uscis can change and will probably change the rules of accepting the application if the demand and rush continues. Already we are seeeing 45 days backlog of receipt.
besides lawyers just have to instruct fedex to pickup and deliver it on july 30th, how difficult can it be ?? except they should have little more room to pile up the applications until july 30th :)
Don't spread rumors! You should know better that people are worried about mid-month retrogression rumor and you are icing that with your silly conclusions from people like you. Not only you are not helping anyone with this thread but you are creating unwanted headache for them. Please stop and wait for your approval, since you have already filed. Do not worry about all of us!
If something is going to happen, like you say, let it happen. There is nothing we can do to stop that and in worst case we won't be albe to file 485. We would still be very happy for you that you had filed and got your GC. Be happy but please stop this nonsense.
besides lawyers just have to instruct fedex to pickup and deliver it on july 30th, how difficult can it be ?? except they should have little more room to pile up the applications until july 30th :)
Don't spread rumors! You should know better that people are worried about mid-month retrogression rumor and you are icing that with your silly conclusions from people like you. Not only you are not helping anyone with this thread but you are creating unwanted headache for them. Please stop and wait for your approval, since you have already filed. Do not worry about all of us!
If something is going to happen, like you say, let it happen. There is nothing we can do to stop that and in worst case we won't be albe to file 485. We would still be very happy for you that you had filed and got your GC. Be happy but please stop this nonsense.
scelamko
12-03 04:49 PM
I called the customer service # on 11/04 and the guy told me that he is sending email reguest for my FP and I got FP notice (my attorney's office also got one) on 11/13. Hope this helps.
gc4me can you please send me the phone number and combination of codes so that I can get them to send my FP notice, i am July 2nd filer as well.
gc4me can you please send me the phone number and combination of codes so that I can get them to send my FP notice, i am July 2nd filer as well.
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